Energy, Resilience and the Long View
There is no tractor on The Farm at Mirrim Wurnit.
People are often surprised by that. A hundred-acre farm on Deep Creek in the Macedon Ranges seems the sort of place that ought to have a tractor parked in a shed somewhere, with a slasher and bucket excavator. We don't. That wasn't the result of a grand plan. It simply reflects the direction our thinking has taken over the years.
Living on an off-grid property changes the way you think about energy. Out here, energy becomes a major factor in everyday decisions in a way that it rarely does in towns and cities. The grass feeding the cattle is stored sunlight. Rain falling on the catchment becomes water in the tank. Firewood cut and stacked in spring becomes heat the following winter. Spend enough time paying attention to these relationships and energy starts to seem less like a commodity and more like a flow moving through a landscape, captured, stored and transformed in different ways — the same logic behind the contours we cut along natural steps in the paddocks, holding rain long enough to spread out and soak in rather than run straight off toward the creek.
Long before moving here I spent part of my career in the upstream oil and gas industry. More recently I have worked in renewable energy and what is commonly referred to as the energy transition. Moving between those worlds has left me increasingly occupied by a question that seems both simple and profound: can the entire system produce enough net energy, reliably enough, to support modern civilisation?
The older I get, the less certain I am of the answer.
That uncertainty does not arise from opposition to renewable energy. Quite the opposite. Wind, solar and batteries are remarkable technologies and will almost certainly play an important role in whatever comes next. What has changed is my appreciation of the scale of the system they are being asked to support.
Modern civilisation is not built on electricity alone. It is built on a vast web of fuels, materials, infrastructure and supply chains developed over more than a century of abundant fossil energy. Much of that complexity has delivered extraordinary benefits. It has also allowed many of us to become disconnected from the physical realities that underpin our lives.
A tractor provides a useful illustration.
A tractor is a remarkable machine, allowing one person to perform work that would once have required many hands and many days. Yet a tractor is never just a tractor. It is diesel. It is steel, copper, rubber and electronics. It is mines, factories, shipping lanes, workshops and spare parts inventories. Like so much of modern life, it is the visible expression of a much larger system.
The question for us was never whether tractors are useful. Of course they are.
Many farmers around here possess skills I deeply admire. They can maintain machinery, rebuild engines, weld, fabricate and keep equipment operating long beyond its expected life. That is a genuine form of resilience.
I am not one of those people.
My own skills lie elsewhere. I can move sheep and cattle through a grazing plan, observe what they are eating and what they leave behind, think about water movement across a landscape, develop a whole-of-farm plan and spend time restoring biodiversity. Those are the capabilities I have chosen to invest in. It is why the diesel we still burn here runs a backup generator rather than a fleet of machinery — a compromise we would rather shrink than expand.
Over time I realised I was better served developing those skills than accumulating machinery I neither understood nor particularly wanted to maintain. That led to a different question: how much machinery did we really need, and how might we design the farm differently if our goal was to reduce dependence on external inputs rather than increase it?
The answer has gradually nudged us in a particular direction. Towards more trees and fewer machines. Towards working with natural processes wherever possible. Towards reducing our dependence on external inputs. Whether that proves wise in the very long term remains to be seen, but it feels increasingly aligned with the kind of resilience we hope to build here — the same instinct that has us handing whole corners of the property back to habitat and creek corridor rather than running it wall to wall as production ground.
This way of thinking owes something to the anthropologist Joseph Tainter, whose work on the collapse of complex societies has increasingly influenced me in recent years.
Tainter argued that societies solve problems by becoming more complex. New technologies, institutions and infrastructure often produce enormous benefits. Yet complexity is not free. Every solution creates new systems that must be maintained. Every layer requires resources, energy and attention. Over time, societies can find themselves devoting an increasing share of their efforts simply to sustaining the complexity they have already built.
I find myself returning to that idea often.
Most of the time the systems underpinning modern life work so well that they become invisible. Then something happens. A drought. A pandemic. A war. A disruption to shipping. A shortage of fuel. Suddenly we are reminded how dependent our daily lives are on systems we barely notice when they are functioning normally.
Running an off-grid farm has not made me pessimistic about the future. If anything, it has deepened my appreciation for resilience.
The solar system keeps working quietly every day. The tanks fill when it rains. Trees we planted as small seedlings along the fence lines are slowly becoming windbreaks and providing shade in the paddocks, not to mention resting spots for birds and homes for insects. Nature has a remarkable capacity for self-organisation when given the opportunity: dung beetles have started turning up from neighbouring properties, unbidden, quietly tunnelling cattle dung into the soil. Nobody ordered that. It is simply what happens when the conditions are right.
Perhaps that is one reason regenerative agriculture resonates so strongly with us.
At its heart it is not really about a collection of farming techniques. It is about relationships. Between soil and plants. Water and landscape. Animals and ecosystems. People and place. Healthy landscapes emerge from many small interactions reinforcing one another over time. They become resilient not because they are simplified, but because they are well connected — visible in something as small as clover creeping back into ground that used to be bare between the tussocks, quietly doing the work of feeding the soil that no machine ever could.
I suspect communities and societies may not be entirely different.
I still believe we need to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. What I no longer take for granted is the assumption that the future will simply be a cleaner version of the present.
The energy transition is often described as a story of substitution: fossil fuels out, renewables in. Reality may prove more complicated.
The trucks moving wind turbine components, the mining fleets extracting copper and lithium, and the ships carrying solar panels and batteries around the world still depend overwhelmingly on fossil fuels. The old energy system is building whatever comes next.
Whether that next system will provide the same abundance of energy that industrial society has enjoyed over the past century remains an open question. It may. I hope it does.
But it is equally possible that future societies learn to operate with lower energy and material inputs than we have become accustomed to. Not because anyone chooses austerity, but because the age of abundant, concentrated fossil energy proves difficult to replicate.
I do not know which of these futures will emerge.
What I do know is that the uncertainty has shaped how we think about this place, The Farm at Mirrim Wurnit, the name given to us by the Traditional Owners for Deep Creek in the Woi wurrung language.
Why we live off-grid.
Why we try to work with natural systems rather than against them.
Why there is no tractor in the shed.
And why, when faced with a choice between greater complexity and greater resilience, we increasingly find ourselves choosing resilience.
Not because we know what the future holds, but because resilience seems valuable under almost any future.
Whether the decades ahead bring technological abundance or tighter energy constraints, healthy soil, secure water, diverse ecosystems and strong local communities are unlikely to be mistakes.
Notes
This piece has been influenced by several writers whose work I have found myself returning to in recent years.
- Joseph Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies (1988). A profound exploration of complexity, diminishing returns and the long-term sustainability of human societies.
- Vaclav Smil, particularly Energy and Civilization and How the World Really Works. Smil's work provides a grounding in the physical realities of energy systems and the timescales over which large-scale transitions occur.
- Ed Conway, Material World (2023). A fascinating examination of the material foundations of modern civilisation and the enormous flows of energy and resources that underpin everyday life.
- Wendell Berry, particularly The Unsettling of America and his collected essays. Berry's writing explores stewardship, community, restraint and the enduring relationship between people and the land that sustains them.
None of these writers would necessarily agree with all of the conclusions drawn here. But together they have shaped how I think about energy, resilience, complexity and the long-term stewardship of land.
Peter
The Farm at Mirrim Wurnit · Monegeetta, Victoria